23 February 2026
By Denzil de Klerk and Tammy-Lynne Bekker

While we seem to have tamed the loadshedding beast (for now, and yes, we know we might have just jinxed it), the national energy project which should be on everyone’s mind is: How do we reach the seemingly mythical milestone of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 where coal still accounts for 75% of the total energy production? How do we build an energy ecosystem to provide sufficient, sustainable, and clean energy for future generations, without sacrificing current mining jobs and aggravating an already horrendous unemployment rate?

Enter the Climate Change Act, 2024

Last year, almost unnoticed, the government enacted the Climate Change Act, 2024 (“CCA”) with its self-proclaiming purpose being:

To enable the development of an effective climate change response and a long-term, just transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society for South Africa in the context of sustainable development…

Among other purposes, the CCA exists to give effect to Section 24 of the Constitution which reads:

             Everyone has the right—

(a) to an environment that is not harmful to their health or wellbeing; and(b) to have the environment protected, for the benefit of present and future generations, through reasonable legislative and other measures that—

(i) prevent pollution and ecological degradation;

(ii) promote conservation; and

(iii) secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources while promoting justifiable economic and social development.

The role of the courts

The CCA is the new legislative authority in South Africa when it comes to climate change. Section 6 specifically provides that where a conflict arises between a provision of the CCA and any other legislation specifically relating to climate change, the CCA is to prevail.

In other words, going forward, our courts are to uphold principles of the CCA when they collide with competing climate change laws. We will keep our eyes on judgments our courts deliver to see to what extent they will be blowing wind into the sales (turbines) of South Africa’s clean green energy ambitions.

We were recently involved with a matter in the Mahikeng High Court where the court was asked to advance the interests of the renewable energy sector. Judgment remains pending, and we will hopefully be able to report on it soon.

The international stage

The CCA helps South Africa give effect to our commitment to the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change entered into in 2015 by 195 parties, including South Africa.

South Africa submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution (“NDC”) under the Paris Agreement in 2015, and as recently as October 2025 submitted its Second NDC wherein the government has recommitted to (i) achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and (ii) adding a significant amount of green energy to the grid.

The envisioned trajectory in the NDC is to add 44GW of renewable energy by 2035. Currently, the national grid is supported by only 7.7GW of utility scale renewable projects and approximately an additional 6.9GW stemming from small-scale embedded generation (“SSEG”) systems.

The NDC is supported by a set of Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs), the most recent being published in October 2025. Together, these documents set out the government’s game plan to reach its climate goals, including:

• To not build another coal-fired power plant
• To add a total of 44GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2035 (confirmed in the latest NDC)
• To begin a 50-year phase-out of the current coal fleet, set to start in 2029, which will include a reduction of 8GW in coal capacity between 2029 and 2030 and a further 15GW between 2034 and 2042. The decommissioning of the Komati coal-fired power station back in 2022 was a minor dress-rehearsal for the major decommissioning process set to commence in 2029 – an encouraging example showing that it can be done.

The urgent need to upgrade the grid

Grid capacity remains a major concern – significant upgrades are needed if the grid is to accommodate South Africa’s capacity goals.

Eskom’s recently published Generation Connection Capacity Assessment (“GCCA”) points out that there is currently an untapped generation connection capacity of 19.94GW nationwide, which in Eskom’s words is “the amount of generation [new energy] that can be accommodated on the transmission system at a given time and at a given location without adversely affecting grid reliability and without requiring significant infrastructure upgrades.” A fresh report by the South Africa Electricity Traders Association (“SAETA”) reveals an 18GW pipeline to be connected to the grid in the near future. Simple mathematics tells us that the grid in its current state will be at full capacity once the pipeline goes online. What about the remaining ±26GW yet to be procured?

Over the next decade, approximately 14,500km of transmission lines and 210 transformers providing 133,000 MVA of grid connection will need to be developed. That is about 10 trips from Johannesburg to Cape Town, or 65% of the current national road network! Clearly a lot of work to be done.

Following the successes of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (“REIPPPP”), the government has launched a similar programme to procure private investment into grid infrastructure upgrades: the Transmission Development Plan (“TDP”). Like REIPPPP, the TPD will launch a competitive bidding process to encourage and facilitate public-private partnerships in this crucial sector. We hope this procurement process will prove as successful as the REIPPPP because in order to achieve the ambitious transitional goals, South Africa will need some incredible #publicprivatepartnerships.

2026 and the opening up the wholesale market

This year is a milestone year when it comes to the buying and selling of energy in South Africa. April will (hopefully) see the launch of the South African Wholesale Electricity Market (“SAWEM”), a landmark regulatory reform designed to transition the country from a single-buyer model to a competitive, multi-market structure. SAWEM’s freer market model aims to enhance energy security and encourage private investment as it enables trading between generators and large-scale customers. We wait with baited breath to see the extent to which SAWEM will stimulate and accelerate broader participation in the renewable energy sector, and are hopeful that the teething problems will be minor.

The role of the private sector

The REIPPPP, which has gone through 7 bid windows to date (and has sprouted several spin-offs such as the Risk Mitigation Independent Procurement Programme (“RMIPPPP”), the Battery Energy Storage Independent Power Procurement Programme (“BESIPPPP”) and the Gas-to-Power (“G2P”) programme) proved a remarkable success and has become an internationally recognised example of successful public-private sector collaboration in pursuit of transforming an energy sector.

Beyond our borders, a few developing countries provide case studies of more aggressive, accelerated private participation. South Africa has its own unique socio-economic challenges which will need to be navigated, but it may be worth our while pulling some leaves from other countries’ playbook in tweaking our own game plan:

In Vietnam, the government used high Feed-In tariffs to incentivise private investment which led to a “gold rush” where over 16GW of solar was installed in under 3 years. To achieve this, Vietnam Energy (“EVN”) offered above-market prices for electricity generated by solar projects and sold to EVS. This saw a solar boom where the private sector is now accounting for roughly 40% of the country’s installed capacity. As a comparison, if we implement the same strategy with similar success in South Africa, it would take us 8.25 years to reach 44GW generation from renewables, beating our 2035 target by about a year!

Saudi Arabia is another world leader in the race towards zero carbon emissions. It aims to generate 50% of its electricity from renewables by 2030. The Kingdom has become a global reference model in its adoption of a circular carbon economy (“CCE”). This model shifts the narrative from carbon as a waste product to carbon as a valuable resource through the 4R approach:

• Reduce: Lower the volume of carbon entering the system by adding more renewables and enhancing energy efficiency across all sectors.
• Reuse:  Capture carbon emissions and utilise them in industrial processes, such as injecting CO₂ into oil fields to maintain pressure without altering its chemical structure.
• Recycle: Chemically transform captured carbon into new, valuable commodities like fertilisers, methanol, or synthetic fuels.
• Remove: Permanently extract carbon from the atmosphere through high-tech Direct Air Capture (DAC) and natural solutions like planting 10 billion trees in the desert.

Finding an offset for carbon emissions in a South African might look a bit different to Saudi Arabia’s, but their model can certainly inspire out-the-box thinking around how to deal with our emissions.

Kenya is famous for the Lake Turkana Wind Power project which has a 310MW generation capacity, made possible through a private-led consortium entering into a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the state utility. At its launch in 2019, it was the largest wind farm in Africa. Wind can provide up to 20% of Kenya’s power and renewables a whopping 90%. Creativity and coal may no longer be required as base-load.

Morocco has used public-private partnerships to build massive Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). For example, the Noor Ouarzazate complex has a whopping 580 MW generation capacity. Morocco’s renewable successes continues to increase its ambitions to be a major exporter of energy to Europe.

Conclusion

Reaching net zero in 2050 and all goals in between will require unprecedented public-private collaboration, but there are indicators that it is not entirely impossible, and other developing nations give us hope it can be done on time. We know the state’s coffers are not deep enough for it to be the primary investor and builder of the net zero age to come, especially when considering the magnitude of required infrastructure upgrades. So, reaching our goals will demand creative, innovative structuring of the sector with strategic allocation of defined roles between utilities, traders, Independent Power Producers (“IPPs”) and SSEGs.

We at SDG Legal will be on the front line of the revolution, providing expertly crafted Power Purchase Agreements, compliance services, risk management, corporate and commercial advice, and all things energy law related. We are ready to do our bit to help South Africa reach its 2050 net zero ambitions and look forward to partnering with you as, together, we make it happen.